Who wants to be president?
Al Jazeera’s Alan Fisher, who covered the Republican campaign last time, looks at the Republicans who want to be president.
The size of the field shows that the Republicans think the 2016 presidential race is one they can win. They have the advantage that they are not facing an incumbent president, and so there has never been a better time to declare.
Let’s look at the field in alphabetical order:
Jeb Bush: He has essentially been running his campaign and raising money since the end of 2014. His brother and his father were president and there is an element of exhaustion about having the family run again. He flubbed a question he should have known would come about the Iraq war, and his position on immigration and education doesn’t match where a lot of the party base sit. He has to do well in one of the first three nominating contests to have momentum going into Florida where he was once governor.
Ben Carson: A retired neurosurgeon with no executive experience, he grew his profile as a right-wing pundit on TV. Perhaps best known in the US for saying President Obama’s signature Affordable Health Care Act was the worst thing ‘since slavery’. The only black candidate in the Republican field, but he lacks the broad base support he needs and the money he would require to sustain any lengthy campaign. Highly unlikely to be the candidate.
Chris Christie: May have missed his moment by not challenging Romney in 2012. As chairman of the Republican Governors Association raised a lot of money and made a lot of friends in the 2014 midterms. But he has a short temper, has had to beat off local scandals in his state and people wonder if he is too indecisive.
Ted Cruz: The Texas senator claims he is the most Conservative Republican in the field and believes the party has lost the last two elections because they have chosen someone to appeal to the centre. While Republicans can vote with their hearts while picking candidates for the House of Representatives where most districts are either heavily Republican or Democrat, they know that presidential elections are won in the middle. He has a strong campaign team and he has important backers. He’ll hang in the race for a while but is unlikely to win.
Carly Fiorina: The only woman so far in the Republican field, she has made a speciality of attacking Hillary Clinton but will need more than that to make a breakthrough from her very low opinion poll rating. A former executive at computer firm, Hewlett Packard, she talks about how she would make a good president because she knows how the economy works, but she was fired from that job because of the company’s performance. No big backers, no clear new policies, no chance.
Lindsey Graham: The South Carolina senator carries a wealth of foreign policy experience having served on important Senate committees for years. He believes that America needs to be strong militarily to project strength abroad. The New Hampshire primary, the second nominating contest, gives him a reasonable chance of success. That would take him riding high into South Carolina, where he would have expectations of a very good showing. Failure to finish in the top two in his home state would almost certainly end his campaign. A win and that would start the big money donors looking at his pragmatic message on the economy and key domestic issues. Not the long shot everyone thinks.
Mike Huckabee: Former Arkansas governor and Christian preacher, he ran for president before and actually won the 2008 Iowa caucus before dropping out of the race. An impressive speaker, he will appeal again to the right-wing, Christian base of the Republican Party. He talks a lot about gay marriage and conservative social issues, which tends to turn off younger voters, and middle of the road independents. Will have to perform well in Iowa again. A large outside bet for the nomination.
Bobby Jindal: Governor of Louisiana but unpopular there. Many people complain that his most recent budget was fashioned to impress right-wing conservative voters rather than deal with the problems of the state. Such a long shot it seems hardly worth firing up the campaign.
George Pataki: The former New York governor has risen without trace in the this race. A fiscal conservative, but a social moderate, his views on cultural questions rubs against the majority of the base of the party who vote in the nominating contests. He occupies much the same political ground as former New York mayor, Rudi Giuliani, and if he couldn’t put together a coalition to survive a presidential race, Pataki has no chance. Likely to be the first to drop out.
Rand Paul: Son of Ron Paul who ran for president last time around, the Kentucky senator benefits from a lot of the his dad’s political organisation around the country. He’s made his name on libertarian issues, notably government overreach on surveillance. He also talks about small government and cutting costs, which appeals to the Tea Party faction of the party. However, many libertarians believe he has moved too far away from them to appeal to mainstream Republicans, and the Tea Party can pick other candidates who have the same message but are stronger on national defence. An articulate long shot who will pick up enough support to keep going longer when others have fallen away.
Rick Perry: The former governor of Texas was an instant favourite when he entered the race last time around but his campaign died with the ‘Oops’ that was heard around the world. In a debate he couldn’t remember all three departments of government he would close if elected. And when you are remembered as the man who can’t remember things, that is never a good thing. He’s gone away, read up on a number of issues, got over a debilitating back injury and donned some nifty glasses which help make him look smarter. Great in small groups, he’s spent a lot of time in Iowa and needs to be in the top three there. Certainly one of the top five contenders.
Marco Rubio: One of the best performers during the 2012 Republican convention, all that was missing from his speech was the phrase: ‘I’m Marco Rubio and I’m running for president’. Well now he is. The problem he may have is that the Republican Party has spent the last eight years saying it was a mistake to elect a one-term senator to the most important job in the land and he is exactly that. He talks about the Republican Party moving on a generation, meaning him. He’s young, he’s right-wing enough to encourage the base to vote for him but charismatic and intelligent enough to have floating voters give him more than a quick look. A Cuban American, he also speaks fluent Spanish, which will help with outreach to a group of voters who overwhelmingly back Democrats. He has to do well in the first four contests, not necessarily winning any of them and stay alive until the show moves to Florida. Will be there or thereabouts come the final counting.
Rick Santorum: A candidate whose time has passed. He ran Mitt Romney close in 2012, surprisingly and narrowly winning in Iowa. But his lack of campaign structure meant he was never going to cause the biggest shock and win the nomination. The man known as the rooster in college won’t be crowing (sorry!) about any results this time around.
Donald Trump: Famously thin-skinned ‘billionaire’ businessman, his entry into the race was seen more as a gift to comedians across American than the Republican Party. Will make things interesting but has no chance of winning the nomination.
Expected to join the race:
John Kasich: Ran for president before but his campaign ended almost as soon as it began. He is governor of Ohio, an important swing state, where he enjoys impressive popularity with voters from both parties, but politically he occupies much of the same ground as Jeb Bush. If the Bush campaign fails to ignite Kasich might decide it’s time to get involved.
Scott Walker: The darling of many on the right and the first candidate to open an office in Iowa, there is no way he’s not running. He boasts a strong conservative record as Wisconsin’s governor. He curbed the power of the public sector unions and then won a recall election with people angry at his actions. But some of his claims about the state budget don’t add up, there are questions about his record and shifting positions. His appeal lies mainly with Conservatives, and the Republicans want to win, so he may sit too far to the right. He could go far in the contest but ultimately not far enough.
The thing to remember with all these assessments if that we are 17 months from the election. One slip, one bad gaffe, one stellar moment in a debate and the picture changes rapidly. Some believe that this election is now the Republicans to lose. And there are plenty in the field who want to be the winner.
Alan Fisher is a senior Al-Jazeera correspondent
By Alan Fisher | July 2015
