Politics

Scottish Review : Alan Fisher

Alan Fisher 19 June 2015

Scottish Review : Alan Fisher - Scottish Review article by Scottish Review

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The waiting game

Saturday 19 June
It will come as a surprise to very few, but violence in Afghanistan increased dramatically in the first four months of this year. A report compiled by the United Nations and presented to the security council shows that roadside bomb attacks rose by 94%. On average, there are three suicide bombings a week, many of them in the south.
     Afghan president Hamid Karzai wants to reach out to the Taliban, to offer them the chance to take seats in government. The Taliban have rejected all overtures. They see NATO members such as the Netherlands setting dates for departure, others such as the Germans and Italians questioning the extent of the their commitment. And they have the patience to wait it out. They are in a position of strength and they know it.
      The report notes that the rise in violence is ‘attributable to an increase in military operations in the southern region during the first quarter of 2010’. That’s the same area where a new Nato-led operation is about to get underway as Taliban strongholds in and around the city of Khandar, the group’s birthplace. It’s thought that it will be a bigger operation than Operation Moshtarak, the biggest military offensive since the Taliban were kicked out of power in 2001.
     The report says Afghanistan’s overall security situation ‘has not improved’ since the last update in March. There’s no sign of that changing soon.

Sunday 20 June
The Israelis have bowed to pressure over the continued blockade of Gaza by deciding to let more goods into the territory. The government will draw up a new list of items which will be allowed into Gaza, unless they are specifically banned.
     Israel has exercised tight control of what goes in and out of Gaza since 2007, but many complained that as some humanitarian aid – food and building materials – were specifically banned, its action amounted to collective punishment. Calls to ease the blockade have grown after the deaths of nine people on a Gaza-bound aid flotilla. No Israeli prime minister likes to be seen backing down in the face of international pressure but Benjamin Netanyahu has said a long list of previously banned items will be replaced by a shorter, specific list of ‘weapons and war material’.
     The changes in the terms of the blockade had been proposed by Tony Blair, acting in his role as Middle East Peace envoy. He hopes that improvement of conditions on the ground in Gaza will also improve chances of peace in the region. But Israel says it will maintain both its naval blockade of Gaza and its current security regime for the territory. The Palestinians say the plan is just a ‘pointless gesture’.

Monday 21 June
Poland’s unexpected presidential election will go to a second round after Lech Kaczynski’s twin brother did much better than expected. The former president was one of 96 people who died in a plane crash in western Russia in April.
     The man who is acting leader, Bronislaw Komorowski, won in the first round, but by less than expected. Jaroslaw Kacyzinski decided he would stand after the death of his brother but was not expected to do well. It looks as though he picked up a large sympathy vote. The two will now go head to head in a run-off on 4 July.
     Before April, Mr Kaczynski was one of Poland’s least trusted politicians. A right winger, he antagonised Germany and Russia and was kicked out as prime minister in 2007. He has picked up votes by presenting himself as a changed man after his loss. Those who had to drop out are mainly on the left, which suggests that Komorowski is the most likely to pick up their votes. The shortened campaign was overshadowed by the air crash disaster and exchanges between the candidates were mild, bordering on friendly. That will change in the next two weeks.