‘Are there any
trees close
to your property?’
Vacancies
Fancy becoming a chair?
Alan Fisher
It should be no surprise that some Republicans are talking about a brokered convention in Tampa in August. Many harbour the hope that a new candidate will emerge in the next few weeks and will be anointed the chosen one, replacing the four men who are now pursing the nomination.
The party looks at the current economic climate, the high price of gas, the unemployment figures and believes Barack Obama could be a one-term president. The problem is that, at the moment, it can’t agree on who would be the best candidate to beat him.
Let’s consider the idea of a late run from some high-profile figure. Chris Christie, the governor of New Jersey has been mentioned. But he is a prominent backer of Mitt Romney. He has attended events around the country for him, introduced him before rallies in key states and defended him in the media. Ditching Romney now would seem too brutal and too clinical and probably spoil his chances of a run at the nomination next time around.
The idea of someone dropping in now also ignores the electoral realities. The arithmetic simply doesn’t add up. To secure the nomination, a candidate needs 1,144 delegates. Even if the magic candidate won every single remaining contest – even though only New Jersey and Utah (a Romney banker incidentally) are the only two to award delegates on a winner-takes-all basis – there are fewer than 400 delegates up for grabs. And that’s if someone could somehow produce the finance and organisation which the others have been building for months, and in some cases years.
So comes the idea of a brokered convention, when the Republican Party gathers to confirm its nominee. All four men have promised to continue their campaigns until then. If no-one hits the magic figure, and it seems unlikely that three can, then it starts to get interesting. If no-one secures enough votes in the first ballot to win the nomination, delegates previously pledged and promised are released and new rounds of voting follow. If no-one wins after that it is possible the delegates on the floor can suggest someone else who could then join the voting.
One of those talking up this idea is former vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin, who opted not to run this time around. She says of the idea: ‘I would do whatever I could to help’. Some see that as a clear pitch for the job.
Some Republicans hope in such a scenario that former Florida governor Jeb Bush would step in. He’s been critical of the infighting and back-biting among the current candidates, but has given no indication he’s about to reverse his decision to stay out of the fight this time around.
The last time any party came close to a brokered convention was in 1976 when President Gerald Ford arrived short of the magic number of delegates. Under pressure from former California governor Ronald Reagan, he rounded up enough support to win the Republican nomination on the first ballot.
Mitt Romney had a good Super Tuesday. He won four states, but much more important was the number of delegates he banked. He has put himself in prime position to win the nomination yet Republicans still hanker for someone else. That shows a deep dis-satisfaction with the choice they have before them. But at this late stage, it’s likely to be the only choice they’ll have.
When is it
morally right
to intervene?
Eileen Reid
It is morally reprehensible to suggest that Assad’s behaviour is of no concern to us since we are not directly involved. This attitude fails to recognise the prima facie duty to help when we can.
