Scotland
in the
heat
Alan Fisher
It’s been a bad week for Mitt Romney. Ten days ago he was looking at virtually tying-up the Republican Party nomination with victory in South Carolina and moving on to Florida for the coronation.
But then things started to go wrong. He discovered he didn’t win the first contest in Iowa. A recount of the votes handed victory to his rival Rick Santorum. His performances in the two candidate debates in South Carolina were poor. Where before he appeared steady if unaccomplished, suddenly he looked shaky and uncertain.
Asked if he would release details of his tax returns, he joked, dodged and avoided, leaving many people to question what he was trying to hide. He said if he received the nomination, he would release them then. That didn’t go down well so he suggested that he would release them when they were completed in April. Now he says he’ll release them on Tuesday. He admitted it has become an issue and that he hasn’t dealt with it well.
Then he watched as a significant opinion poll lead in South Carolina disappeared in 72 hours, handing a stunning victory to former speaker, Newt Gingrich. Romney is now campaigning in Florida. He has a healthy lead and tied up many of the early postal ballots. But, as we’ve seen, leads can quickly change. There are many reasons why there is no need for the Romney campaign to panic. It is well-funded and well-organised in Florida, much more so than Newt Gingrich or his other two rivals.
That’s important because while the first three contests are about what they call retail politic – shaking hands and meeting voters face to face – Florida is so large that the best way to get a message across is by using TV ads. It is one of the most expensive states in the country in which to buy airtime. Gingrich even made an appeal for fresh funding during his victory speech in South Carolina, an acknow-ledgement that his lack of finance could be a problem.
After Florida on 31 January, the contests that follow should favour Romney. There is Nevada on 4 February and Arizona on the 28th. Both have huge Mormon populations which many expect will largely back one of their own. There is also the vote in Michigan on the 28th, This is the state where Romney was born and grew up, where his father was governor and where he won in 2008.
National polls suggest that in a straight match-up with President Barack Obama, Romney would do better than Gingrich or any other candidate. Although if the election was tomorrow, the polls say he still wouldn’t win.
Here’s the worrying thing for him and his campaign – the rapid disappearance of so many supporters suggests that Romney’s backing is soft, He remains vulnerable to attack on aspects of his past and people still aren’t convinced that his work for an investment firm didn’t lead to the loss of many jobs while he was lining his own pockets.
Romney has changed tactics for Florida. We saw that begin with his speech to supporters in South Carolina. He’s gone on the offensive against Newt Gingrich, no longer leaving it to a spokesman or prominent supporters. He is highlighting the well-known personal issues which surround the man who is now clearly his main rival. So a contest which has been rough and unpredictable until this moment will become even more so. It also means that this is a race that is far from over.
