ENLIGHTENMENT Dilma’s in trouble
Alan Fisher
Photograph by Alan Fisher
On a warm autumn day, which would be regarded as a roaster in a Scottish summer, there is a carnival atmosphere in Sao Paulo. There are bands and flags, there is face painting and banners. And there’s a call for the president to go. The demonstrators are not just on the streets in Brazil’s biggest city. They are protesting on the beach in Rio de Janeiro and in other towns and cities across the country.
Until recently Brazil was regarded as one of the economic wonders of the world, one of the emerging economies creating wealth and gathering influence. Brazil is the B in the group known as BRICS. Russia, India, China and South Africa are the others: would-be global leaders in manufacturing and service industries or dominant suppliers of raw materials.
In Brazil, the emergence came under President Lula da Silva. He was loved by the people. His time in office saw a boom in the economy, and many of Brazil’s poor benefitted. He left with an approval rating of more than 80%, the most popular elected politician in the world.
His chosen successor was his chief of staff. Dilma Rousseff is tall and deeply impressive, according to those who have met her. She spent two years in prison for revolutionary activities during Brazil’s military dictatorship and was considered such an important prisoner that a military prosecutor called her the ‘Joan of Arc’ of her guerrilla movement. She was tortured for 22 days.
A trained economist, she walked into a faltering global economy. She won the election with 56% of the vote – but, from the start, many were determined to see her fail.
Re-elected in 2014 by a much tighter margin, the election exposed clear divisions in the country. However, her popularity, even among her own supporters, took a massive knock just weeks after her election with a scandal at the state-run oil firm, Petrobras. It’s alleged that billions of dollars in bribes were paid to politicians to divert valuable construction projects to certain firms. The money then made its way back to political parties. The Workers’ Party – the party of President Rousseff – was said to be the main beneficiary and Rousseff was chairman of Petrobras. But nothing has been found to link her to any wrongdoing, and she denies any knowledge of what went on.
The groups opposed to her range in political opinion from the far left to those who advocate a temporary return to military rule. The president now has a popularity rating of around 13%. There are regular calls for her impeachment.
Yet the North American Congress on Latin America, a New York-based think tank, believes the roots of the protest lie in Brazil’s impressive economic achievements of the last decade. Pointing to the fact that many of the protestors are wealthy or highly educated or both, it suggested in a recent report that they ‘will continue to use corruption as an excuse to protest against the socio-economic ascension of those they see as their inferiors’.
There is no immediate danger of Rousseff being removed, though the treasurer of her party was recently arrested. She would, however, be at huge risk if there was any evidence that linked her directly to the scandal.
The bigger issue may be Brazil’s deteriorating economy. It is on the brink of recession. She is making cuts to government handouts and talking of increasing some taxes. Everyone is feeling the pinch. With four years left of her term, Dilma Rousseff needs her ratings and her country’s fortunes to improve – or face being left in office but no longer in power.
Alan Fisher is a senior Al-Jazeera correspondent
By Alan Fisher | May 2015
