New analysis has put a price tag on the energy crisis that engulfed Scotland between 2021 and 2024, and the figure is staggering: £11 billion. That is the direct additional cost faced by households, businesses, and public sector organisations as wholesale gas prices soared in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and oil prices spiked.
The report by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit breaks the figure down. Scottish households absorbed £5.8 billion in excess energy costs, which works out to approximately £2,260 per household, or roughly 70 per cent of what a typical Scot spends annually on food and non-alcoholic drinks. Industry took a £1.8 billion hit, with Glasgow (£800 million), Edinburgh (£740 million), the Highlands and Islands (£560 million), and Aberdeen (£390 million) seeing the largest spikes. Commercial, agricultural, and public sector bodies absorbed another £2.6 billion.
The analysis confirms what anyone who opened a gas bill during that period already knew: the crisis hit hardest in the areas that could least afford it. Those in postcodes with the lowest average household incomes spent a greater proportion of their earnings on excess energy costs than people in wealthier areas. That is not a revelation, but having the data to prove it matters.
The ECIU used the findings to argue that Scotland needs to end its “dependence on international fossil fuels.” Professor Tavis Potts of the University of Aberdeen’s Just Transition Lab put it bluntly: “Drilling for more North Sea gas won’t fix this underlying problem or lower bill costs for consumers or industry as output is too low to influence prices that are set in global markets.”
The question the report poses is whether Scotland is prepared for another crisis of this kind. Progress on shifting away from gas boilers for heating remains slow. The industrial sector’s reliance on fossil fuels has barely budged. £11 billion is the cost of the last crisis. Without structural change, the next one will be just as expensive.