Oil prices are expected to spike sharply when markets reopen on Sunday evening after the US and Israeli strikes on Iran sent shockwaves through global energy markets. Brent crude closed up 2.87 per cent on Friday at $72.87 a barrel before the full scale of the military operation became clear. Analysts say that figure could look modest by Monday morning.
Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said crude prices could surge by $10 to $20 per barrel when trading opens. Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights expects a “knee-jerk jump” to $80 if hostilities persist into Monday. Barclays flagged the possibility of Brent climbing to roughly $80 should supply disruptions emerge. Lombard Odier went further, estimating a temporary spike to $100 per barrel or beyond is “entirely plausible” if Iran moves to block the Strait of Hormuz for any meaningful duration.
The Strait of Hormuz is the critical variable. Roughly 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply passes through the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has the capability to disrupt shipping there, and in previous escalations has threatened to do exactly that. If the strait is closed even temporarily, the impact on global energy prices would be immediate and severe.
For Scotland, higher oil prices are a double-edged sword. The North Sea industry benefits directly from higher crude prices, but consumers and businesses face higher costs at the pump and across the supply chain. Petrol prices, which had been relatively stable through early 2026, could climb significantly in the coming weeks depending on how this conflict develops.
OPEC+ is watching closely. The cartel has been managing production quotas to keep prices stable, and a sustained spike above $80 could prompt increased output to calm markets. But that depends on the cooperation of member states, several of which were on the receiving end of Iranian missiles over the weekend. The economic fallout from this conflict is only beginning.