Get SR free in your inbox twice a week
Click here
The banner
Winter skyline,
St Andrews
Photograph by
Islay McLeod
Since SR does not accept advertising or sponsorship of any kind, and since the support it receives from its publisher (the Institute of Contemporary Scotland) is limited, SR depends on the generosity of individual supporters through the Friends’ appeal. The standard donation is £30, but we can handle much larger amounts. To become a Friend, and help to ensure that SR goes on flourishing
Click here
For a list of the current Friends of the Scottish Review, click here
For a list of the current Friends of the Scottish Review, click here
For a list of the current Friends of the Scottish Review, click here
For a list of the current Friends of the Scottish Review, click here
Like patricides discomfited by their orphan status, Catalan nationalist politicians have been hard pressed to look or sound optimistic as they survey the political ground subsequent to their historic vote by 85 to 41, with two abstentions and seven MPs not voting, to hold a referendum on independence, in defiance of the Spanish constitution, by December 2014 at latest.
They state this date publicly although privately they accept that their poll must be held before the Scottish one as they anticipate a ‘No’ vote there which would have a deleterious effect on any Catalan plebiscite held subsequently.
The actual vote was more than somewhat shambolic, nowhere more so than in the case of the anti-establishment CUP which outdid even my gloomy predictions over its penchant for whimsy, splitting its three votes on this most crucial of issues, one in favour of a referendum but two abstentions, whilst outside the gates of the Generalitat a few hours previously its parliamentary leader assured disgruntled supporters that ‘everyone with an ounce of political nous understands that our posture is tantamount to three “Yes” votes!’.
In the case of the socialists of the PSC/PSOE, party discipline and the fear of exclusion from the closed party lists at the next election was so strong that the five-member pro-independence minority in the 20-strong parliamentary party did not even dare to formally record an abstention in opposition to the democratic decision within the group to record a ‘No’ vote but instead tried to join the ranks of sick MPs by choosing not to press their voting buttons.
The main conservative party PP who currently form the national government in Madrid did press their buttons, against the motion perforce, but promptly indulged in political pantomine of the CUP sort by walking out of the chamber before the result was announced, ostensibly in protest at the concept of taking the vote they had just participated in.
Most worrying of all perhaps for Catalan nationalists, the eve of poll had been enlivened by an unprecedented interchange of fire between leaders of the twin-party CiU government coalition which called into question the durability of the long-standing and hitherto seemingly immutable modus vivendi within this cornerstone of Catalan nationalism
Catalan PM Artur Mas made a rare live television appearance late in the evening on a Catalan station and although his robust defence of that afternoon’s decision did cheer nationalists downcast at his obvious political weakness after the loss of a dozen seats in the elections of 20 November 2012, other observers noted his practiced ‘business as usual’ rebuttal of charges of endemic corruption in the Catalan (and Spanish) body politic as a sign that he is quite as out of touch with contemporary voter sensitivity on this matter as are the leaders of major national parties.
At exactly the same time, Oriol Junqueras, the leader of ERC, the tail which currently wags the dog in Catalan nationalist politics was at his emollient best on the Spanish equivalent of ‘Newsnight’, refusing to be ruffled by openly contemptuous questioning at the hands of journalists from the right-wing anti-nationalist viz anti-Catalan nationalist press in Madrid. His attempts to explain to voters from Andalucia to Galicia that Catalonia aspires to be on best neighbour terms with the rump Spanish state that would remain after Catalan independence certainly cut no ice in the studio, not that it was ever likely to.
With Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy out of the country on a visit to Peru and Chile it fell to the Spanish foreign minister to dismiss the decision by the Generalitat as so much political rhetoric and froth, ‘all sound and fury signifying nothing,’ whilst making it clear that any actual move on the ground towards holding such a vote would be met with an implacably hostile response from the Madrid government.
The leader of the Catalan PP, Alicia Sanchez-Camacho, had by next morning done her sums and she mercilessly taunted the sepatarists, highlighting for instance that the 85 votes for a referendum the previous day did not even reach the 90-vote threshold required to alter the current Catalan Autonomy Statute or to enact a Catalan electoral law (something which remains stubbornly stuck in the parliamentary in-tray after no less than 32 years of home rule). Moreover she asserted that less than two years previously a partially equivalent, albeit much lower key, assertion of the right of Catalonia to aspire to independence had received no less than 118 votes in favour. Not much of a basis for a dangerously destabilising adventure in constitutional brinksmanship she triumphantly concluded.
Spanish unemployment is around six million, a peak not seen since the death of Franco in 1975. Unemployment pay lasts for only 18 months, supplemented by a maximum of six months subsistence-level support, causing the government to vote prodigious sums to replenish anti-riot materials for the police. Bright graduates head abroad in droves. The euro is still in need of long-term support. Spanish banks are still under suspicion, with many families losing their homes to bank repossessions and being thrown on the street despite living in the country with Europe’s largest stock of empty flats. Juicier and more outrageous political payola scandals are being revealed on a near-daily basis, affecting all major parties except the Basque nationalist. King Juan Carlos’s son-in-law is apparently on the brink of being arraigned for corruption. The first faint signs of an anti-EU backlash are emerging in this most europhile of countries. The Basque Parliament is almost certain to follow the lead of its Catalan cousin by rejecting the PSOE-endorsed federal solution and asserting its preference for full independence.
But with the PP government in Madrid ever more intransigent in its refusal to countenance any alteration whatsoever to the existing constitution, only a fool would place bets on the likely course of Catalan or Spanish politics over the next 24 months.
James Scott is a former maths teacher who was born in Glasgow and now lives in a small town in Tarragona Province, Catalonia