The political rumour mill is fair churning these days, isn’t it? Every other week, it feels like there’s a fresh bit of speculation about who the SNP might get into bed with after the Holyrood election. Aye, I know, the votes aren’t even cast yet, and we’re still a good while away from the big day. But the chatter about potential deals, especially with the polls hinting that John Swinney’s lot might not get that elusive majority, is hard to ignore.
It’s a muckle fankle, mind you. The idea of the SNP needing a partner to govern properly, even if they end up with the most seats, just shows you the precarious state of play in Scottish politics. It leaves me wondering if we’ll ever see a truly stable government again, or if we’re doomed to this constant dance of ‘will they, won’t they’ when it comes to forming a coalition.
Some folk have been whispering about the Liberal Democrats. They’ve backed the Scottish Government’s budget a couple of times, which, on the surface, might look like a sign of a blossoming friendship. But let’s be real, supporting a budget and actually joining a government are two entirely different beasts. Alex Cole-Hamilton, the Lib Dem leader, has been pretty unequivocal about it. He said: “I will never tire of saying this but there will be no Liberal Democrat coalition with the SNP.” He did say last year that supporting a budget was sometimes the “grown up thing to do,” but that’s a far cry from sharing the keys to Bute House.
I reckon he’s got a point. Can you imagine the stramash within both parties if that deal were to happen? Ross Greer, a Green MSP, even suggested that SNP members would simply “not put up with it” if their party tried to team up with the Lib Dems. He’s probably not wrong, either. The grassroots of both parties have their own distinct ideologies, and trying to force a square peg into a round hole like that would be a recipe for disaster, making previous party revolts look like a ceilidh.
Then there’s the Greens, the obvious former partners in crime. They had their moment with Nicola Sturgeon, signing the original Bute House Agreement back in 2021 with Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater. But that relationship, as we all know, ended in a bit of a sour note. Humza Yousaf, as First Minister then, sacked them, and you can still feel the lingering distrust, like a bad smell in a small room. The Greens, I imagine, still smart from being unceremoniously dumped, and the SNP, well, they’ve got their own wounds from having a First Minister’s tenure cut short, partly because of the fallout.
So, what’s in it for John Swinney, then, to go back to that particular well? I can’t see him gaining much. He’s managed to govern as the head of a minority government since the last Bute House Agreement collapsed, albeit with a wee bit of difficulty. Bringing the Greens back into the fold would mean making concessions, sharing power, and potentially reigniting old tensions that frankly, Scotland doesn’t need right now. We’ve got enough on our plate, with local councils running out of money and public services creaking.
The truth is, this constant speculation about who’ll prop up the next government is a symptom of a deeper malaise in Scottish politics. It’s less about clear mandates and more about political arithmetic. It makes me wonder if the focus is ever truly on the day-to-day governance of the country, or if it’s always just a game of chess, maneuvering for the next election. You can read more about the broader scene in Scottish Politics: Power, Policy, and the Path Forward.
Swinney, for all his experience, finds himself in a canny difficult position. If the polls are to be believed, and the SNP doesn’t secure a majority (you can see the latest polling analysis in Holyrood Election 2026: SNP Lead Polling as May Vote Approaches), he’ll be left with a choice between trying to govern alone, relying on ad-hoc deals, or attempting to forge an alliance with parties that seem, at best, reluctant, and at worst, openly hostile. It’s a dreich outlook for anyone hoping for a period of stability.
I just hope that whatever happens after the election, the politicians at Holyrood remember who they’re actually there to serve. The people of Scotland deserve a government that can get on with the job, without constantly looking over its shoulder for the next political skirmish. A stable government is what we need, not another round of ‘Bute House Agreement or Bust’.
Source: Herald Scotland
