Off-topic: anyone else watching the Old Firm derby for outright betting?

[DundeeDegen]

Slightly off-topic but tangentially gambling-related. The April 27th Old Firm derby is on this weekend and I'm wondering if anyone else is in the camp where the result of this match actually swings the SPFL outright betting markets meaningfully. Celtic at -240 to win the league, Rangers at +240 (so 70/30 implied probability split). A Rangers win in this fixture would swing it to roughly 60/40, more if Celtic lose elsewhere in May.

Practical implication: I've got some money sitting on Rangers SPFL outright at +250 from October. If Celtic win this fixture, that ticket goes from "alive" to "effectively dead." If Rangers win and Aberdeen drop points at Hibs, suddenly there's value in topping up the Rangers ticket because the implied probability shifts meaningfully. MyStake has the live outright market still open during the match.

Just thinking out loud about how the swing affects multi-week positions, not specifically asking for predictions on the derby itself.

[AngusReviewsAll]

The asymmetry on outright derbies is exactly why they're the most-bet single fixture each season. The information content of an Old Firm result is roughly 3-4x what a normal SPFL fixture is — the market consensus rate shifts by 8-12% based on a single result. From a position management standpoint, treating outrights as static through the season misses the chance to fade after a clear signal.

My personal rule: outright positions get reviewed after each Old Firm derby, after each cup tie, and after any 3+ game streak (winning or losing) by either side.

[ScottishSkeptic99]

Tangential: the Scottish Cup semifinals were on the same weekend last year and the spillover from cup tie energy into the Old Firm derby created some weird value plays. Specifically I cleared £140 fading the Rangers BTTS market (it was overpriced) in the days following their semifinal exit.

Cross-competition spillover is genuinely underpriced in SPFL outright markets.