Scottish Premiership relegation odds completely mad this season - Motherwell 3/1 to go down

[Fiona Slots Fan]

Been tracking the Scottish Premiership relegation market since August and the odds this season are absolutely mental. Motherwell are sitting at 3/1 to go down despite being 7th in the table with 23 points from 19 games. That's better odds than some teams actually in the bottom three.

Meanwhile St Johnstone are 11/4 favourites for the drop and they're only 3 points behind Motherwell. The bookies seem to think Well's injury list (5 first-team players out long-term) and their awful away form (2 wins in 10) makes them more likely to slide than Saints who've at least been picking up points at McDiarmid Park.

Current relegation odds I'm seeing:

• St Johnstone 11/4
• Ross County 5/2
• Motherwell 3/1
• Livingston 7/2
• St Mirren 9/2

Anyone else think these prices are way off? Motherwell have been in the top flight for 8 seasons running and their squad depth is still better than at least 3 teams below them.

[glasgowgambler]

Those Motherwell odds are a joke. 3/1 for a team that's been solid mid-table for years? The bookies are mugging punters off here. St Johnstone should be much shorter - they've looked absolutely dire in half their games this season and their goal difference is shocking at -18.

[edinburghexpert]

I've been running the numbers on this and the market is definitely skewed. Based on current form over the last 10 games, Motherwell are averaging 1.2 points per match which projects to 46 points over a full season - that's typically safe territory.

The injury concerns are valid though. Losing Spittal, Mugabi and Casey long-term has weakened their spine significantly. Their expected goals against has jumped from 1.1 per game in August-October to 1.8 per game since November.

I'm tracking this on a spreadsheet with home/away splits, and Motherwell's away record (6 points from 30) is genuinely relegation form. If that continues they'll need to win almost every home game to survive. The 3/1 might actually be generous when you factor in fixture difficulty - they've got Celtic, Rangers and Hearts away in their next 8 matches.

For value I'm looking at Freshbet who are offering 4/1 on Motherwell - slightly better than the market average and their rapid settlement means you can hedge quickly if the odds shift.

[stirlingslots]

Mad that Livingston are 7/2 when they look absolutely toothless up front! Watched them against Hibs last weekend and they created about 2 chances in 90 minutes. Bruce Anderson looks like he's playing in treacle and they're crying out for a proper striker in January.

I've stuck £20 on Livi at those odds through Jack.com - their mobile app makes it dead easy to get these bets on quickly when you spot value like this. Think 7/2 is generous for a team that's scored just 16 goals in 19 games.

[perthpunter]

Be careful with relegation betting - these markets can swing wildly with just one or two results. A couple of wins for Motherwell and those 3/1 odds will disappear fast. I prefer waiting until March when you've got a clearer picture of who's actually in trouble.

That said, if you're backing relegation bets, stick to small stakes and never chase losses. These long-term markets can tie up your bankroll for months.

[aberdeenasker]

Sorry for the basic question but how do relegation odds work exactly? Does 3/1 mean Motherwell have a 25% chance of going down? And when do these bets get settled - end of the season?

[inverness_ian]

Been following Scottish football for 40 years and I've seen plenty of "safe" teams get dragged into relegation battles. Remember when Dundee United went down in 2016? They were odds-on to stay up in February and still got relegated on the final day.

Motherwell's problem isn't just injuries - it's mentality. When a team starts believing they might go down, results get worse fast. I was at Fir Park for the St Mirren game in November and you could see the panic setting in when they went 2-0 down. The crowd turned toxic and the players looked terrified.

That away form is genuinely worrying too. In my day, teams could survive by being fortress at home, but with only 18 home games now you need to pick up points on the road. Six points from 10 away games is amateur level - even part-time Highland League sides do better than that proportionally.