In the early days of the outbreak, some foolish and irresponsible estimates were published. One in Britain, for which the WHO was not responsible, predicted that half the population of this country would be infected and that ‘up to’ 750,000 people would die. The popular press leapt on these extreme scenarios, splashing them across front pages. The government then distributed a leaflet to every household, teaching us how to sneeze. Although the original panic has abated, every day the BBC continues dutifully to report every ‘jump’ in the number of cases, no Ceefax menu being complete without the latest total. This is not the journalism of an independent broadcaster, but the public relations of the state.
Likewise, the pronouncements of health experts are reported in the media with a complete absence of scrutiny or even a dash of scepticism. Professor Hugh Pennington (a Dr Doom of the virus world) emerged from the shadows last weekend with his declaration that the number of cases in Britain was probably double the official estimate. The correct response would have been: ‘So what?’. But, like all other speculations by experts, this one was accorded the greatest respect.
The truth about swine flu so far – I emphasise so far – is undramatic. By last Monday, 25,288 cases had been reported in 73 countries. Of these 25,288 people, 139 – 0.55% – have died, most of them in Mexico, the source of the outbreak. Let’s put these statistics in perspective – the perspective which is usually missing. Every year, ordinary seasonal flu kills between 250,000 and 500,000 people around the world. In the United States alone, 36,000 people died of seasonal flu last year, and 164,000 others were hospitalised, without so much as a public murmur. By comparison, swine flu is a pussy cat, barely scratching the surface of mortality statistics, and in the vast majority of cases mild in its symptoms. Most people get better, completely better, quickly. It is likely that Pennington is correct in thinking that the number of cases in Britain is greater than reported – I’d suggest very much greater – but only because many people with flu symptoms are so mildly ill that they treat themselves and return to normal without a fuss. The official statistics are not to be trusted for another, very important, reason. They are presented as if they represent the currently infected. The truth is that they represent the cumulative caseload, including the majority who have recovered.
A much more serious second wave is being predicted for the autumn. This theory seems to be based largely on the development of the 1918 flu epidemic, which began with a mild outbreak in the spring, died away in the summer, and then bounced back with a vengeance in the autumn, killing hundreds of thousands. It could happen. History could repeat itself. People in the developed world could be as susceptible to fatal infection in 2009 as they were in the immediate aftermath of a world war. Anything’s possible.
The official response to swine flu has been as melodramatic as the outbreak itself has been undramatic. For weeks, the WHO’s flirtation with its pandemic level has racheted up the tension, but for some reason the WHO and national governments have been slow to point out that the WHO’s crude definition of a pandemic expresses geographical reach, not lethal potential or effect. Unbelievably, the state of Massachusetts rushed through a martial law bill on swine flu, giving the state power to enter private houses and quarantine the inhabitants, while in Hong Kong the government quarantined 300 guests in a four-star hotel, effectively imprisoning them for days, because one of them was found to have the virus. When an uninfected guest attempted to leave, he was stopped by the police and ordered to return to his room and stay there.
The Wall Street Journal, one of the few important newspapers to challenge such extraordinary over-reaction, suggested recently that what we are witnessing over swine flu is a ‘psychological operation on the public at large’. The motives for this operation – although I would exempt the Scottish government, whose response has been sober and balanced – belong in the same dark cupboard as the moves towards compulsory DNA-ing of the population or the ID card scheme: it suits governments to keep the people in a more or less permanent state of fear. Not for nothing are we commemorating this week the 60th anniversary of ‘1984’. Not for nothing has ‘Orwellian’ entered the language so potently.
Here is a final perspective on the pandemic of the fortunate. Nine hundred and fifty three million people – I repeat 953 million – are permanently and severely malnourished. Every five seconds, a child somewhere in the world dies of hunger. For this child, swine flu is not a problem.
UNNATURAL SELECTION
I.
HONOUR
BOUND
Kenneth Roy recommends someone for a knighthood
[click here]
II.
DO I HAVE WHAT IT TAKES?
Walter Humes is sent for leadership training
[click here]
PASSABLE WITH
CARE
Photo essay:
Islay McLeod survives the Cock Bridge to Tomintoul road
[click here]
PRAYING FOR AN EDUCATION
International I:
Marian Pallister visits a country where the kids want to go to school
[click here]
WHAT
NEXT?
International II:
Alan Fisher on uncertainties in the Middle East
[click here]
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