Bob Cant
Galicia
There are two key issues dominating Spanish politics today – one is the question of austerity and the other is the flourishing of nationalism in some parts of this pluri-national society. Two regional elections on 21 October threw light on the flux of ideas and activity surrounding these issues and their inter-connection. The regions of Galicia and Pais Vasco are very different and the contrasts between them provide valuable insights into the political and economic volatility of this prominent Mediterranean country.
Galicia is sometimes said (without much evidence apart from the popularity of bagpipes) to be the most Celtic part of Spain but it has a history of being one of the more politically conservative parts of the country. Franco was born there and in 30 of the 34 years since the restoration of democracy, the right-of-centre party, Partido Popular (PP), has formed the regional government.
There was a view that the elections might turn into a referendum about the austerity programme, devised by the PP government in Madrid and implemented with vigour by the PP government at regional level. That was certainly the hope of the opposition Socialist party (PSOE); their aim was not so much to win as to prevent the PP from winning another absolute majority. In fact, the PP won with an increased majority. This was not so much an endorsement of austerity politics as a statement about the lack of a meaningful alternative. PSOE is still blamed for starting off the moves towards austerity in 2010 and, like most Social Democratic parties, they have yet to find a voice for themselves in the world of globalisation and deficit reduction fetishism.
The third force to emerge from these elections was a new Galician party, Alternativa Galega de Esquerda (AGE), which was a merger of a small national left-wing party, IU, and a breakaway Galician nationalist group. Their success was such that they pushed the more traditional Galician nationalist party into fourth place. AGE is led by a charismatic septuagenarian called Xose Manuel Beiras, most of whose supporters seem to be at least 40 years younger than him. The fact that AGE gained 14% of the vote in Galicia means that they should be taken seriously; they are an electoral expression of the kind of opposition regularly seen on streets. Small parties are emerging in this period as the most articulate opposition, in a parliamentary context, to the government’s austerity programme; there are different parties in different regions and so there is no effective Spanish-wide framework as yet.
The other significant factor in these elections was the level of abstention; although the PP increased the number of seats they held, their share of the vote and the number of votes they won both saw a reduction. While it is important not to over-interpret trends like this against a sitting government, it is also important to keep an eye on the behaviour of people who are disgruntled enough not to vote for their traditional party but not committed enough to affiliate themselves to another political organisation. It can be an expression of a breakdown in trust for politics but it could also be an expression of wait and see if something better comes along.
The elections in Pais Vasco can be interpreted more through the prism of the national question than that of austerity. The overwhelming factor in last month’s election was the absence of ETA. Most SR readers will be aware of ETA as an organisation that used physical force to pursue its agenda of independence for Pais Vasco and killed nearly 900 hundred people in the process. In fact, ETA was one part of a much larger movement, called abertzale izquierda (left wing Basque patriots), which sought to unite Basque-dominated areas in both Spain and France and effect some kind of wider social transformation in the process.
The abertzale izquierda includes trade unions, cultural organisations, women’s groups and youth groups as well as more formal political organisations; many of the political organisations were banned from electoral politics because of their close proximity to ETA. When ETA gave up armed struggle at the end of 2011, the situation became much more straightforward electorally and the abertzale izquierda was represented on 21 October by a party known as EH Bildu.
Bildu gained 21 seats, slightly less than the 27 seats won by the more conservative nationalist party, PNV. The PNV led the government of Pais Vasco from the time of the restoration of democracy until 2009. Now they are back in a leading position, they have won the right to choose their partners for government. The history of ideological and political differences between PNV and Bildu makes it extremely unlikely that they will form a nationalist coalition, although they would have a majority of seats if they did so. Much more likely is that the PNV will form an agreement with the Socialists, even though they lost a lot of seats in the election; such an agreement could either be a formal coalition or a Socialist promise to abstain on certain issues.
The response to the Madrid government’s austerity programme will pose major dilemmas for the PNV. Although the Pais Vasco enjoys something very much like what we would call devo max, it is unable to absent itself totally from the fiscal and economic initiatives of the central government. While the PNV would be unwilling to implement the cuts and close public services in the way that Madrid wants, they might well decide that they had no other choice.
In such a case, Pais Vasco might find itself in a situation where an unpopular austerity programme was being implemented by one right-wing nationalist party and the opposition to that programme was being led by another more left-wing nationalist party. That would certainly raise new questions about the direction of Basque nationalism; but the PNV had a vague commitment to a constitutional referendum buried deep in its manifesto and there might be a temptation for them to burnish their nationalist credentials by calling such a referendum. There is no possibility of that in the short term but the problems facing the government in Pais Vasco may well lead to serious consideration about what Basque nationalism is for.
Certain nationalist sentiments have also expressed themselves in other parts of Spain in the campaigns against austerity. In the part of Spain with which I am most familiar I have noticed that the much of the propaganda against austerity is either produced in Valenciano or both Spanish and Valenciano. This, in no way, suggests a commitment to political nationalism but the use of regional languages in campaigns against the centrally determined policies of the Madrid government is certainly another ingredient in the recipe for political uncertainty in Spain.
Two major events in November will provide further insight into the development of Spanish politics. One is a general strike against austerity throughout Spain, which was called for yesterday (14 November). The other is the much discussed Catalan election on 25 November. While this has a whiff of independence surrounding it, there is no legal referendum element to it; cynical Spanish friends of mine argue that it is a very convenient way for the CiU, a party which has always had a shaky relationship with the concept of Catalan independence, to remove their austerity programme off the top of the political agenda.
In addition to all of these developments, which are, for the most part, being led by political forces on the ground, there is the question of police responses to political activity. During a recent demonstration in Madrid, they appeared to be out of control and took to attacking tourists who happened to be in the centre of the city. There is also a government proposal to outlaw the taking or distribution of photographs of police action against strikers or political demonstrators. Apparently, taking photographs of the police at work is a public order issue.
Bob Cant is a writer who travels frequently to Spain
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